What is Bayes Market?
Explore the world through probability. Shape belief through markets. Reveal causality through graphs. Illuminate the future through intelligence.
Problem
Users rely on traditional prediction methods (expert opinions, basic models) that lack real-time crowd-sourced insights and inefficiently update beliefs based on new data.
Solution
A prediction market platform where users trade probabilistic outcomes to shape collective beliefs, analyze causality via interactive graphs, and forecast events (e.g., trading "AI adoption rate" shares). Core: markets aggregate crowd intelligence + causal graphs reveal hidden drivers.
Customers
Data scientists, researchers, investors, and analysts seeking dynamic forecasts; organizations needing crowdsourced risk assessment.
Unique Features
Combines prediction markets with causal inference graphs, enabling users to visualize/quantify how variables (e.g., policy changes) impact outcomes probabilistically.
User Comments
Intuitive interface for complex forecasts
Gamified belief-shaping feels engaging
Early-stage liquidity limits niche markets
Causal graphs need more documentation
High potential for corporate use cases
Traction
Launched 1 day ago on Product Hunt (Oct 4, 2023), ranked #1 with 1.5K+ upvotes. Active markets: 200+; partner integrations: 3+ (unnamed enterprises).
Market Size
The global prediction market industry is projected to reach $10 billion by 2025 (Allied Market Research, 2022).
